CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S

[Bent-Winged Angel]

Ok I just started to read Gleick's book "Chaos"  Then I stumbled into the book by Taleb "Black Swan Theory"  Now I was pondering.. are they not saying virtually the same thing?

[Jameses]

care to summarize?

[fractower]

I think it is fair to say that both theories place bounds on the ability to predict the future, but I think for different reasons.

In a chaotic system, small errors in initial conditions (or introduced noise) are preserved and amplified. At some point the amplification is such that all predictive ability is lost.

In  Black Swan Theory the prediction problem is not so much with initial conditions. The problem is that some smart ass comes along and changes the rules.

[Bent-Winged Angel]

care to summarize?
 Here is a quick summery! 

I think it is fair to say that both theories place bounds on the ability to predict the future, but I think for different reasons.

In a chaotic system, small errors in initial conditions (or introduced noise) are preserved and amplified. At some point the amplification is such that all predictive ability is lost.

In  Black Swan Theory the prediction problem is not so much with initial conditions. The problem is that some smart ass comes along and changes the rules.

In black swan theory it seems to mainly deal with man made occurances.  Chaos theory seems to deal with (my God) Mother nature.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/BDbuJtAiABA&rel=1&fs=1&hd=1" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/v/BDbuJtAiABA&rel=1&fs=1&hd=1</a>
Soo new question..Which is more unpredictable.. man or nature?

[lkmitch]

Soo new question..Which is more unpredictable.. man or nature?
[/quote]

Yes.     The rules of man are far less well codified than those of nature.  On the other hand, people are probably much better at navigating ill-defined people-based systems than nature-based systems, so it may be a wash.

[Bent-Winged Angel]

Soo new question..Which is more unpredictable.. man or nature?

Yes.     The rules of man are far less well codified than those of nature.  On the other hand, people are probably much better at navigating ill-defined people-based systems than nature-based systems, so it may be a wash.
[/quote]

Yes I'm inclined to agree.  Both are chaotic.