Title: CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S Post by: Bent-Winged Angel on November 23, 2010, 10:28:19 PM Ok I just started to read Gleick's book "Chaos" Then I stumbled into the book by Taleb "Black Swan Theory" Now I was pondering.. are they not saying virtually the same thing?
Title: Re: CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S Post by: Jameses on November 24, 2010, 01:01:48 AM care to summarize?
Title: Re: CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S Post by: fractower on November 24, 2010, 06:49:51 AM I think it is fair to say that both theories place bounds on the ability to predict the future, but I think for different reasons.
In a chaotic system, small errors in initial conditions (or introduced noise) are preserved and amplified. At some point the amplification is such that all predictive ability is lost. In Black Swan Theory the prediction problem is not so much with initial conditions. The problem is that some smart ass comes along and changes the rules. Title: Re: CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S Post by: Bent-Winged Angel on November 24, 2010, 03:45:55 PM care to summarize? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABAHere is a quick summery! I think it is fair to say that both theories place bounds on the ability to predict the future, but I think for different reasons. In black swan theory it seems to mainly deal with man made occurances. Chaos theory seems to deal with (my God) Mother nature. In a chaotic system, small errors in initial conditions (or introduced noise) are preserved and amplified. At some point the amplification is such that all predictive ability is lost. In Black Swan Theory the prediction problem is not so much with initial conditions. The problem is that some smart ass comes along and changes the rules. Soo new question..Which is more unpredictable.. man or nature? Title: Re: CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S Post by: lkmitch on November 24, 2010, 05:10:30 PM Soo new question..Which is more unpredictable.. man or nature? [/quote] Yes. :) The rules of man are far less well codified than those of nature. On the other hand, people are probably much better at navigating ill-defined people-based systems than nature-based systems, so it may be a wash. Title: Re: CHAOS VS BLACK SWAN THEORY'S Post by: Bent-Winged Angel on December 02, 2010, 04:10:02 PM Soo new question..Which is more unpredictable.. man or nature? Yes. :) The rules of man are far less well codified than those of nature. On the other hand, people are probably much better at navigating ill-defined people-based systems than nature-based systems, so it may be a wash. [/quote] Yes I'm inclined to agree. Both are chaotic. |